H-1B Turmoil in the U.S.: Opportunity or Illusion for Canada?

Last Friday was supposed to be an ordinary start to the weekend for many, but that quickly changed for foreign workers in the United States. After office hours, their social media feeds erupted with news about a new H-1B proclamation from the current administration. Shock rippled through the community as people realized the proposed $100,000 application fee would put many visa holders’ immigration status in jeopardy.

Tech companies responded rapidly, urging employees to remain in the U.S. or return before September 21 at midnight, the proclamation’s effective date. Some foreign workers, already on international flights, made frantic last-minute decisions to cancel trips, even after planes had left the gate, causing significant delays at airports.

The lack of policy details and no mention of exemptions for specific roles or industries left all H-1B holders deeply concerned. As with many other policies from this administration, changes come abruptly and unpredictably. On Saturday, the White House provided clarification via social media: the new fee would not apply to existing H-1B holders. This announcement offered tremendous relief - after all, life does not pause for emergencies that require travel home.

At the same time, some Canadians began calling on their government to seize this opportunity and attract affected talent by welcoming those disillusioned by the change in the United States (for example, see this tweet from Public and International Affairs Professor Thomas Juneau). But is this truly a smart move?

According to SSTI, most H-1B holders (about half in 2023) worked in professional, scientific, and technical services - in other words, at large tech companies. In 2023, educational services were next (about 16%), followed by healthcare and social assistance, and then manufacturing (at 7-8% each). The top 100 H-1B employers as of June 2025 included Amazon, TATA, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Google. If Canada opened its doors now, the program would likely attract mostly tech workers.

However, Canada’s tech sector is already oversaturated. According to the Globe and Mail, tech job postings have fallen nearly 20 percent from early 2020 levels. Unemployment in the country remains high, 7.1% in August 2025, the highest since May 2016, excluding the pandemic years. Entry-level jobs are snapped up quickly, with thousands of applicants flooding HR systems. A recent survey found that 87% of Canadian job seekers feel their applications are ignored, a symptom of extreme competition and strict filtering during application screening.

The next-largest group of H-1B holders work in education, a sector equally troubled in Canada. Many universities and colleges are cutting budgets due to a drop in international student enrollment. Quebec, for example, has imposed as many as 15 restrictive measures on foreign students, and new student caps were introduced. Applications at some institutions are down by 25 to 60 percent, and federal immigration caps have further reduced study permit allocations. The financial impact is dramatic: McGill has announced 100 layoffs to address a $45-million deficit, SFU’s president predicts more layoffs, and Ontario universities, including Waterloo, Wilfrid Laurier, and Guelph, face significant deficits, with Waterloo alone reporting a $75-million shortfall before recent cuts. Dalhousie University in Nova Scotia also posted a $20-million deficit, leading to across-the-board cuts. This budgetary crisis means hiring freezes are likely to expand.

Given this landscape, it makes little sense for Canada to rush to “capitalize” on the H-1B crisis next door. Examining the two largest H-1B sectors, tech and education, reveals Canada simply does not offer sufficient job opportunities to support a surge in skilled newcomers. The outcome for many would be lower wages and working below their qualifications if they landed a job at all. The focus must instead be on job creation for everyone, not just opening the floodgates for more arrivals.

Canada already experimented with this idea in 2023 when it launched a special work permit program for H-1B visa holders. Demand was intense: the 10,000 permit cap was reached in less than 48 hours. Yet within a year, only 1,205 workers actually arrived. While interest is high, the reality of Canada’s job market makes the move far less attractive. The goal of attracting top talent was not completely met.

Canada, on the other hand, should continue to bring immigrants who fill persistent job vacancies, especially in manufacturing, healthcare, construction, retail trade, and accommodation and food services, according to Statistics Canada. Attracting H-1B holders from the U.S. may sound promising, but the data, and recent experience, show it’s not the ideal path.